Yields for the US 10-year Treasury topped 4.75% on Monday for the first time since January 2025 following a spike in oil prices tied to renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and the stalemate in the six-month US-Israel war with Iran.
Five-year yields are also hitting their highest level since early last year while 30-year yields, the subject of much discussion in the aftermath of the US exceeding $40 trillion in debt, surpassed last week’s highs.
In parallel,
- the 10-year Japanese JGB has hit 3% for the first time since 1996,
- Australian bonds are back at their 2011 levels,
- And Europe is following suit:
- France at 4.16%, the highest since 2008;
- Germany at 3.31%, the highest since 2011;
- Italy at 4.15%;
- Spain at 3.76%;
- Portugal at 3.67%.
The bond market does not necessarily signal an imminent crisis. It points to something more specific and more troubling. The inflation, budget deficits, war, artificial intelligence, and the erosion of political credibility must now all be financed simultaneously.
Welcome to the war of attrition on capital. Who wins?
