Major copper shortage expected over next 15 years

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coppercopper shortageelectric vehicles

➢ By 2040, the world could face a copper shortfall of around 10 million tonnes — equivalent to approximately 33% of current global demand.

  • 🤍 Global copper demand could rise from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million tonnes by 2040.
  • 🤍 Around 60% of the increase in demand will come from Asia, driven primarily by the expansion of electric vehicles and upgrades to power grids.
  • 🤍 Another major factor is AI data centers. Their copper consumption could increase by 127%, reaching 2.5 million tonnes by 2040.
  • 🤍 Meanwhile, copper production is expected to peak at around 34 million tonnes in 2030, before declining to 32 million tonnes by 2040.

Electrification, grid modernization, EV adoption and the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure are creating long-term demand that may be increasingly difficult for new mine supply to match.

Copper is emerging as the next strategically important commodity of global significance.

Chart of copper supply vs demand to 2040, demand rising and supply peaking around 2030; MediaBBG watermark.
Projected copper supply vs demand to 2040, showing a widening deficit driven by EVs and AI infrastructure.

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