There are some comments to the SpaceX IPO event:
The median major IPO over the last 15 years delivered a -31% first-year return and a -53% maximum drawdown, suggesting that investors are often better served waiting for post-IPO price discovery rather than buying into initial market enthusiasm.
Long-term winners often require exceptional tolerance for volatility.
Even some of the strongest IPO performers, such as Palantir, Arm, and Airbnb, experienced significant drawdowns before generating outsized returns, highlighting that successful IPO investing requires both selectivity and the ability to withstand substantial short-term losses.
Dry summary:
Rather than participating at IPO, investors should consider a "wait-and-evaluate" approach, using the first 6–12 months after listing to assess execution, valuation normalization, and market sentiment before building a position.
