Economists' biggest fear: US CPI mirrors 1966–1982

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cpiinflation1966-1982

Economists biggest fear… Current US CPI trends have closely mirrored the path from 1966–1982, with a reported correlation of 0.93. Such a high correlation suggests that underlying inflation dynamics—such as wage pressures, persistent services inflation, and policy lags—may again be underestimated, increasing the risk that inflation proves far more stubborn than markets currently price in.

Line chart comparing US CPI year‑on‑year 2014–2026 (green) with 1966–1982 (blue), annotated Apr 2026 3.78% and showing a reported correlation of 0.93 between the series.
Chart comparing US CPI path 2014–2026 and 1966–1982; reported correlation ≈ 0.93.

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